You’ve probably heard it a thousand times before, especially when there’s any kind of blip in the market – ‘people still have to move home, you know,’ your agent will say, but do you believe them? We thought we’d take a look at the numbers behind the statement and see if it really is true. You should know, I am not an agent, I’m a journalist, so I’ve got no axe to grind.
The most common reasons for moving home include: births, deaths, marriages, divorces and retiring/downsizing. And the most reliable place to get the relevant numbers is from the government, the ONS (Office of National Statistics) to be precise, who seem to keep a very close eye on us all.
Births:
Births are one of those things that happen regardless of the state of the economy or the housing market, or, as the cliché goes – the best laid plans. And, I know from experience, once your child has arrived, your one-bedroom flat is going to feel very small indeed. You may last a month or two, telling yourselves you’ll manage. You won’t. Then you’ll have to sell your flat and buy a small house or cottage. And when the next one arrives, you’ll have to sell that and buy a proper, family home. Births therefore create a lot of movement in the market and with around 777,000 of them every year, you’ll get an idea of the scale of it all, especially since they often generate two transactions, rather than one – ie the selling of a home AND the buying of another one.
Deaths:
Well, we all know about death and taxes and their inevitability. Death is certainly no respecter of circumstances, economic or otherwise. There were 586,334 deaths in England and Wales in 2021 (which was some way below average). Like births, they often generate more than one transaction, as the deceased’s house will be sold and the recipients of the money will often upgrade their houses for a bigger or better one.
Divorces:
Sometimes divorcing couples will sell their shared home and buy two new ones. Sometimes one person stays in the existing property and the other buys a new one and sometimes the arguments go on for so long their lawyers get all the money and they end up homeless (only joking). There were 113,505 divorces in 2021, and, if you’re interested, 11 years seems the average duration of a failed marriage.
Retiring/downsizing:
It’s very common to move home when retiring – you no longer need to worry about being near your place of work and with your nest now empty (mostly) you don’t need so much space, either. It is also a point in your life when you feel less at the mercy of the economy, so people move regardless of how it’s performing, including the housing market. Around 700,000 of us pack in full time work every year and that excludes Scotland. Again, this usually creates a double transaction – buying and selling.
Moving for a new job:
Now this is an area which tends to be more dependent on the economy, but even in a downturn, people still change jobs. Exact figures are hard to find, but the CIPD are forecasting that a whopping 6.5 million of us are planning to move jobs over the next 12 months (that’s 25% up on this year). Granted, the majority won’t have to move home, but quite a few will and, at those kinds of numbers, they will form a significant proportion of active buyers and sellers.
So, there you go, indisputable proof that agents are telling the truth – there are significant numbers of buyers and sellers regardless of the state of the market.